On Christmas day our central heating system broke down. The temperature was -10 C.
We borrowed several electric heaters from the neighbors, which barely managed to keep the house somewhat warm. If the electricity had also broken down, we would have been finished.
Two days later we called a plumber to fix the system. However, after trying various things and replacing some parts of the system the boiler still refused to work. He eventually gave up and suggested phoning the manufacturer.
Two days after that a specialist from Junkers Corporation came and replaced nearly every component of the heating system. It had not been serviced for 20 years and most parts were beyond repair. Lesson learnt: take good care of machines, service them regularly and fix things as soon as they break. Leaving a fault unrepaired will very soon result in many compounding problems and cause some major headaches (or worse).
I remember that way in the dark ages (i.e. 20 or so years ago) we, and practically everyone around us, used to have a wood/coal burning stove attached to chimney. To warm the house we would light the fire. Simple. With a sufficient stockpile of burnable fuel there was practically no danger of freezing.
Now however, with the advent of nice, convenient modern central heating systems, we are no longer independent. If the underground gas supply system breaks down, we freeze. If the boiler unit breaks, we freeze. If the electricity cuts out, the boiler unit no longer works and we freeze. If the underground water supply system breaks down, the boiler can no longer heat water to supply to the radiators and ??¦ we freeze.
A good, fault tolerant system has multiple backups and few dependencies. Modern society is just the opposite: too many dependencies and no contingency plan.
For example: 5 years ago protestors prevented the fuel/gas/petrol tanker trucks from carrying out their work. Within a couple of days the entire country ground to a halt. Keeping stock is expensive, so everything in shops is delivered just-in-time. With no fuel, deliveries can’t happen. The result: within a few days there was no more food in the country. The government had to step in and force the protesters to stop.
German keeps an emergency oil reserve that will last for 90 days. The USA maintains a 50 day stockpile. However, in the event of a breakdown of the distribution mechanism, those stockpiles will be pretty much useless.
Realization: if a small disaster knocks out one or two of the main utilities (water, gas, electricity, fuel) of one of our great, powerful western consumer democracies, then that nation will be reduced to total anarchy in a matter of months!
As Sitapati blogged recently: a post-apocalyptic world as portrayed in Mad Max and many other science fiction films is becoming more and more of a probability. Much more so now, than ever before.